The US-Iran war has sent shockwaves far beyond the “Strait of Hormuz”, landing squarely on Wall Street.
As the conflict continues, the global economy faces a dual-threat environment: rising energy costs and a massive pivot toward defense spending.
With Brent crude holding above $100 per barrel and the Federal Reserve warning that a “war-driven” spike in energy prices could derail its fight against inflation, investors must rebalance their portfolios in 2026.
In the current climate of geopolitical stagflation, the following three US stocks stand out as essential hedges against a world on edge.
ExxonMobil (XOM): the ultimate energy shield
As Iran’s blockade of key shipping lanes chokes global supply, ExxonMobil stock has emerged as the premier beneficiary of the “energy security” trade.
Unlike its European competitors, XOM spent last year aggressively expanding its North American footprint – notably through its massive Permian Basin production, which reached a 40-year high in early 2026.
This domestic focus insulates Exxon from Middle Eastern volatility while enabling it to still capture the windfall of higher oil prices.
Historically, XOM shares have served as a classic inflation hedge. During previous energy shocks (1970s and 2022), the firm’s massive free cash flow allowed for record shareholder returns.
As of writing, Wall Street rates ExxonMobil at “moderate buy” with price targets going as high as $195, indicating potential upside of nearly 20% from here.
Lockheed Martin (LMT): defense in an age of attrition
Recent escalations between the US and Iran have transformed the defense industry from a “cyclical” play into a “structural pillar” of the modern portfolio.
Lockheed Martin, the world’s largest defense contractor, is the primary engine behind the US and allied response.
From the F-35 fighter jets patrolling the region to the PAC-3 missile interceptors protecting critical infrastructure, LMT’s backlog is swelling as restocking becomes the operative word for militaries.
During inflationary periods, Lockheed’s long-term government contracts often include escalators that protect margins – a feature that has historically allowed the stock to “outperform” during times of high CPI.
That’s why Wall Street is sticking with its “moderate buy” rating on LMT shares with price targets going as high as $775.
Costco Wholesale (COST): the value fortress
As energy-driven inflation eats into household budget, Costco is strongly positioned to capture the “trade-down” effect.
The warehouse giant’s membership model creates a “sticky” revenue stream that remains resilient even when discretionary spending falters – as consumers flock to its bulk-pricing to combat rising grocery and fuel costs.
Historically, Costco stock has thrived during inflationary cycles; its ability to absorb cost increases through its Kirkland Signature brand while maintaining high volume gives it a massive competitive moat.
In Q1, the retailer saw a 14% increase in membership fees, proving its value proposition is stronger than ever.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the consensus rating on COST shares sits at “overweight” – with price targets going as high as $1,315, signaling potential upside of nearly 35% from here.
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